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MARKET PULSE / COMPANY WATCH

Sources updated · 10/23/2026, 20:08 · UTC+8

TSMC

TSM · NYSE

Can advanced process and packaging expansion sustain growth and returns on capital?

Company research ↗

OPERATIONS & CHECKS

Put developments in context

Reviewed 2026-10-19

OPERATING EVIDENCE MAP

Can advanced process and packaging expansion sustain growth and returns on capital?

Select a node to inspect evidence

Arrows show a review path, not causation. Counts describe records, not completion or scores.

Operating baseline

Q3 diluted EPS
NT$29.43

Actual Q3 2026 per ordinary share; US$4.60 per ADR unit is a separate basis.

2026-09-30TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Q4 revenue guidance
$52.3–54.3B

Q4 2026 USD guidance issued October 15, not actual results; USD/NTD 31.8 assumption, gross margin 65%–67%, operating margin 56.5%–58.5%.

2026-10-15TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Q2 USD revenue
$40.20B

Historical actual Q2 2026 revenue, retained on the company-reported USD basis.

2026-06-30TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Operating data, milestones and original sources

Track monthly revenue, quarterly margins, advanced-node revenue mix, packaging capacity and capital spending separately. TSM is the NYSE-listed ADR; monthly revenue changes do not directly measure AI revenue or profit.

DATED OPERATING REVIEW

Advanced manufacturing demand and capacity returns

2026-10-19

Q3 revenue and advanced-node mix update the operating evidence. Continue verifying growth, margins and capacity returns, with Q4 guidance shown separately.

The operating review retains its original assessment dates. New headlines do not automatically change the reviewed facts.

Q3 diluted EPSNT$29.43

Actual Q3 2026 per ordinary share; US$4.60 per ADR unit is a separate basis.

2026-09-30 · TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Q4 revenue guidance$52.3–54.3B

Q4 2026 USD guidance issued October 15, not actual results; USD/NTD 31.8 assumption, gross margin 65%–67%, operating margin 56.5%–58.5%.

2026-10-15 · TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Q2 USD revenue$40.20B

Historical actual Q2 2026 revenue, retained on the company-reported USD basis.

2026-06-30 · TSMC Investor Relations ↗

Milestones to verify

  1. Watch实际期间：2026 Q3；披露：2026-10-15

    Capacity conversion

    2nm supplied 8% and 3nm 33% of wafer revenue; 7nm and more advanced nodes totaled 79%. Mix does not establish utilization or investment returns.

    Next check: Q4 actual revenue, node mix and issuer-disclosed utilization.

    TSMC Investor Relations ↗
  2. Watch实际期间：2026 Q3；披露：2026-10-15

    Investment returns

    Q3 actual margins update the baseline. Detailed cash flow, capex and depreciation were not reviewed this run.

    Next check: Reported expansion spending, depreciation, operating cash flow and actual margins.

    TSMC Investor Relations ↗
Workstreams and reviewed changes

Investment returns

Track expansion spending, depreciation and margins alongside cash-return evidence.

Subsequent official capex, depreciation, cash-flow and margin disclosures.

TSMC Investor Relations ↗

Risks to the thesis

  • Demand volatility, new-fab costs and currency movements may change margins and capital returns.
  • Advanced-node revenue share does not establish utilization or cash investment returns.
  • Q4 guidance is unachieved; capex, depreciation and cash flow were not fully reviewed.

Next checkpoints

  1. Q4 actual USD revenue versus $52.3–54.3B guidance.
  2. 2nm and other advanced-node mix and utilization disclosures.
  3. Expansion spending, depreciation, operating cash flow and actual margins.

Q3 figures are actual, Q4 figures are guidance and Q2 remains historical. This review covered the Q3 results page and earnings release, not all accompanying statements.